| (International Observation) Why the Palestine-Israel conflict is showing a trend of "quick strike and quick stop" |
Under the mediation of Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations, Palestinian armed groups and Israel reached a ceasefire agreement in the early morning of the 3rd, and the exchange of fire between the two sides ended after only one day. Although the Israeli army killed four more Palestinians in the West Bank on the 4th and two more Palestinians on the 6th, the overall situation in Palestine and Israel remained relatively calm.
Analysts pointed out that in recent years, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has often experienced such a situation of "quick strike and quick stop". Although the two sides have continued small-scale conflicts, large-scale exchanges of fire tend to end in a short period of time. This time also continued this trend. The two sides have their own internal reasons and are also affected by the recent "reconciliation tide" in the Middle East. They both realize that they will not benefit from the escalation of the conflict, so they have maintained a certain degree of restraint in deterring each other.
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On May 2, Kadir Adnan, a senior member of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad Organization (Jihad), who was on hunger strike in an Israeli prison, fell into a coma and died later. Jihad immediately issued a statement saying that Israel will "pay the price." In the afternoon, southern Israel was attacked by rockets from the Gaza Strip, and the Israeli army dispatched warplanes at night to launch air strikes on multiple military targets in the Gaza Strip. The health department of the Gaza Strip issued a statement on the 3rd saying that one person was killed and five others were injured in the Israeli airstrike. According to Israeli sources, as of the early morning of the 3rd, Israel was attacked by more than 100 rockets from the Gaza Strip.
Since the conflict between the Israeli police and the Palestinian people at the Al-Aqsa Mosque in the Old City of Jerusalem on April 5, tensions between Palestine and Israel have been frequent, and the situation was once tense. From April 6th to 9th, a total of about 80 rockets from the Gaza Strip, southern Lebanon, and southern Syria were fired at Israeli territory or areas under its control, and the Israeli army launched retaliatory shelling. In addition, Israeli troops continued to clash with Palestinians in many areas of the West Bank and Jerusalem, causing casualties, and there were also several shooting incidents targeting Israelis in places such as the West Bank and Jerusalem.
However, reviewing the recent exchange of fire between Palestine and Israel, the actual damage caused by Palestine to Israel is limited. For example, although there are many rockets fired from Lebanon, according to the statement issued by the Israeli army, only 5 of them fell into Israel, causing 3 Two Israelis were slightly injured. The Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip are mainly aimed at the military installations of the Palestinian armed groups and rarely affect civilians. The retaliatory strikes on Lebanon and Syria are even more limited to the border areas where there are few people inhabited. Restraint signal.
Hussein Ibish, a senior scholar-in-residence at the Gulf Arab Institute in Washington, believes that the current "new normal" between Palestine and Israel is characterized by frequent conflicts and tit-for-tat confrontations, but they often do not escalate into major conflicts. “Large-scale MiLitary operations".
“Each has its own considerations"
From the perspective of Palestine, radical armed factions such as the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) have been competing with the more moderate mainstream Palestine National Liberation Movement (Fatah) for dominance in Palestine, and often use tough confrontation with Israel to gain support from the Palestinian people . The easing of relations between Iran, which supports Hamas, and Saudi Arabia, which supports Fatah, will inevitably have an impact on the relations between various factions within Palestine and the relations between Palestine and Israel. Ahmad Rafiq Awad, a professor of political science at Al-Quds University in Palestine, believes that the momentum of regional reconciliation will help various Palestinian factions reduce confrontation with each other, weaken the motivation of radical armed factions to confront Israel hard, and thus help to ease the tension between Palestinians and Palestinians. Take tension.
From the perspective of Israel, the reconciliation among Islamic countries in the Middle East has made Israel feel more pressure, and the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Netanyahu has gradually lost popular support due to judicial reform in the country. At this time, the conflict with Palestine has escalated. It will only add "foreign troubles" to "internal troubles" and further shake the increasingly fragile foundation of public opinion. Awad said that Netanyahu is currently only adopting a "limited response" to attacks by Pakistani armed groups, in order to avoid conflicts with many neighboring countries if the situation escalates. Nimrod Goren, director of the Israel Regional Foreign Policy Research Institute, believes that for the Israeli government, neither deliberately escalating the situation nor easily compromising, and seeking a delicate strategic balance may be the best choice at present.
In fact, in recent years, the pace of cooperation led by economic exchanges between Israel and some Arab countries has been accelerating, and multi-faceted cooperation based on common interests is gaining momentum. At present, the momentum of dialogue and reconciliation initiated by the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran continues to accumulate in the Middle East. Analysts believe that in this context, while exercising restraint, Palestine and relevant parties should follow the trend, show political courage, take steps to resume peace talks, and promote a comprehensive, just and lasting solution to the Palestinian issue. ( reporter: Pawer World News)